Weekly Market Update – August 13, 2026

USD/JPY found support from a rebound in WTI crude oil futures, pushing the pair back toward the 159.36 level amid Japan's market holiday. That said, a wait-and-see mood has since spread ahead of today's (August 12) release of the July U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI). The pair has remained confined to a narrow range, and today's CPI print looks set to determine which direction it breaks.

Technically, with intervention wariness still weighing heavily on USD/JPY, the downside is likely to focus on yesterday's low of 158.93 and the psychological 160.00 level.

It's also worth noting the seasonal tendency for yen strength during Japan's Obon holiday period, driven by real-demand flows. With this in mind, we'd consider short positions on a short-term basis if the pair breaks below the support line.

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