This Week's Market — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

This Week's Market — Tuesday, July 28, 2026

USD/JPY has remained confined to a narrow range, with Middle East tensions continuing to weigh on sentiment.

This week brings monetary policy meetings from both the U.S. and Japan, with the FOMC meeting on July 28–29 and the Bank of Japan meeting on July 30–31. Both central banks are expected to hold rates steady this month, but the dollar's next move will likely hinge on how hawkish Fed Chair Warsh's remarks turn out to be — or whether that hawkish tone softens instead. The key question is whether the dollar would be sold off if the tone does ease.

As for the BOJ, Governor Ueda's press conference — his first in a while — will also be worth watching closely.

With USD/JPY approaching the 164 level without triggering intervention, there's a sense of momentum that could carry it toward 165, though the market may simply be waiting to see the FOMC outcome first. We continue to maintain a degree of caution regarding the risk of intervention.